The short term investing stock picks blog

I found this link in my travels today (sorry forget where), but I found it absolutely fascinating.  Many already know about the massive amount of option activity betting heavily against the US markets before 9/11, but did you know there is a significant amount (over $1 billion) betting on a 50% drop in the S&P by options expiration next month?  I am seeing nearly 50,000 puts and calls for next month at the 700 strike price (S&P is currently at 1,466.79).   Here is an interesting article on this and I am wondering if anyone has a rational explanation that they could share, shoot me an email if so.

I’m back from a brief respite last week and am placing the following stocks on my radar as making new highs.

Stock: Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (NYSE: ATW)
New 20-day high
Be careful of: P&F has a low pole warning, energy fluctuations

Stock: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE: CLF)
New 20-day high on 2x volume, P&F double top break-out
Be careful of: slowing economy, waning coal demand

Stock: Cooper Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: CTB)
New 20-day intraday high, recent P&F triple top break-out
Be careful of: Lost momentum early Friday and did not regain

One of the great parts about writing the blog is the great feedback I get from readers.  Quite often readers send me "great" sites for stock picks or someone’s trade log to review.  I am impressed as to how many there are out there currently.  In any event, given the nature of this blog and the feedpicks site I created, I wanted to comment on one thing.  Many beginner, or maybe more advanced readers, often confuse something very important: stocks that open up and stocks that trade up.   What I mean is when analyzing our (the bloggers) picks, pay careful attention to the timing.  For example, if I call symbol XYZ for Monday, my "pick" is only as good as the distance traveled from the open, not the day’s total gain (which may include a gap up or down at the open).  If XYZ closed yesterday at $1 and I call it overnight, opens at $1.50 and closes at $1.40.  The day’s total gain is 40% but the tradeable gain is -7% (saying buy at open, sell atclose).  Sounds simple, but in the past week three people have emailed me about the "amazing" calls of some bloggers and forum members.  Kudos to many of them, but for others, it’s not hard to call a hotlist stock if someone blew away earnings the night before.  I’m less trying to call anyone out (not- no links) than trying to educate a certain part of my readership.  Just something to keep on your mind.