Archive for October, 2007

KAMAN Corporation (NASDAQ: KAMN)

Wednesday, October 31st, 2007

Nearly six months ago, I recommended going long Kaman Corporation (NASDAQ: KAMN).  It is up around 51% since that point, so kudos to you if you were crazy enough to follow-up on my recommendation.  But I post here today, to share with you great news from the company: It sold its music division.  If you remember from the original post, I offered, "Its two other main divisions, Industrial distribution and Music are less impressive to me.  I’m going to just toss out Music.  If you care, Kaman is the largest independent distributor of musical instruments and accessories.  The brand is very solid, but the industry sucks.  Kaman could get a pretty penny for this segment, which makes up 18% of revenues.  Until they do this, it will continue to drag on margins and growth rates."  Kaman recently announced that it sold the division to Fender, where it belongs.  This is great news for the margins and growth rates of this stock and should help get this thing over $40 soon.

BUY: Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP)

Monday, October 29th, 2007

BUY: Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP) $51.00 (10/29/07)

Sell price: $53.55 or
Sell date: November 29, 2007
Stop loss: $48.00 (-5.9%)

Daily showing a nice cup and handle break-out
P&F Double top break-out last week
EMA/MACD very bullish
Fibonacci very bullish

Profile: Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP) is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the activities of acquiring, developing, exploiting, exploring and producing oil and gas properties in the United States. The Company’s core areas of operations are the Los Angeles and San Joaquin Basins onshore California; the Santa Maria Basin offshore California, and the Gulf Coast Basin onshore and offshore Louisiana, including the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2006, PXP had estimated proved reserves of 351.7 one million barrel equivalent of oil (MMBOE), of which 95% was consisted of oil and 52% was proved developed. Approximately 99% of its proved reserves are located onshore and offshore California. The Company has a total proved reserve life of approximately 17 years and a proved developed reserve life of approximately nine years. On November 1, 2006, PXP closed the sale of non-producing oil and gas properties to Statoil Gulf of Mexico LLC (Statoil).

HMIN - A Chinese Stock That Makes Sense

Friday, October 26th, 2007
HMINHome Inns and Hotels Management, Inc ADR (NASDAQ: HMIN) is a Chinese stock that really appeals to me.  The company is a China-based economy hotel chain which develops and operates economy hotels across China under its Home Inn brand.  Some will have you believe that this is an Olympics play and perhaps it is.  I see a bigger picture.  Given the expanding Chinese middle class and continued liberalization of Chinese economy and culture, travel and tourism is going to grow exponentially in the country.  The availability of a brand that people know provides comfort, cleanliness, and affordability will be a huge opportunity for HMIN and its competitors.  I am a big believer in the competitive advantage local companies have in this space.  Sure there is intense competition in the larger cities, but we’re seeing HMIN opening some 26 hotels in secondary cities with cheaper land and less competition.  This is where exponential growth in China will occur. 

Currently, shares are just about to break-out of a nearly year-long base around $49.50.  This means that shares have run up significantly of late, in fact, nearly 50% in the last month.  Perhaps this should scare me (you) off, but I will be keeping a close on eye this one.  I may dip after the $49.50 breakout, but believe there will be a handle to this cup that will provide another entry point and a classic base on this stock’s ride much, much higher.

The key for this company is, will it have the right management team in place to scale this business, if so, this is one that you can pocket away for years and reap return upon return.