The short term investing stock picks blog

I wanted to announce to the blog audience the creation of Instant ETF.  Instant ETF was an idea I had while trying to find some ETFs for my portfolio a while back.  What I found was that while there are many tools out there, few offered a simple approach to browsing ETFs.  At times, I could get lucky with using Google Finance’s autocomplete, but since most ETFs official name starts with its manager (like iShares), it was hard.  I’ve found ETF Connect’s search function somewhat useful as well, but also limiting if I didn’t know exactly what I was looking for, or say if I was an average investor what the heck a closed-end fund was.

Instant ETF offers the ability to simply browse by name, expense ratio, sector, bond type, location, market cap, and investment style (bullish/bearish).  Its a simple system — you can’t currently filter by multiple attributes or search traditionally — these may be added in the future.  The system currently contains around 1,000 ETF/ETNs, which I do not believe is a fully exhaustive list, but pretty darn close.  I know there are probably a few of those closed-end funds that I do not have in there.

In any event, check it out and enjoy!

This morning McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) reported same store sales that were up 12%, driven by international markets, but also by a strong 8% increase in the US.  Much had been written about the potential for premium coffee to help boost McDonald’s earnings and drive above average growth for the next few fiscal years.  These expectations, in part, helped send its Northeast coffee distributor, Green Mountain (Newman’s Own) to 52 week highs, peaking around $40-$42.50.  Given this, you may expect Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) to be riding MCD’s coattails with today’s trading — it’s not.  As I write it is down nearly 4%.  This marks the 16th down day in the last 19 for a loss of around 36%.  Sure small caps are down during this same period, but not even close to as much as GMCR, thank god for that. 

So what’s the worry with GMCR?  It’s our old friendo: commodity price inflation.  With guidance given last week, management reaffirmed guidance for the second quarter (phew), but noted that it would be increasing prices 8-12% effective May 5 (oh shit).  They also noted that earnings remain highly susceptible to continued commodity price inflation.  Remember they not only have to worry about coffee prices, but also the milk and sugar to go with it.  It’s hard to justify such a premium (still over 45 P/E) with such heady times coming and I think investors are responding to this.  From a technical standpoint, you may see some Relative Strength bounces soon, but I expect this one to piddle around and maybe even test the $20 support from around April 2007.

I really like this brand and love this coffee, so I am pulling for GMCR, but even with MCD in the Northeast, this may be a bumpy quarter or two for the roasters from Vermont.

Simulcast from something I wrote on Campus Stocks - take a look at PGN if you are looking for an inexpensive pure play in the regulated utilities field.  I would wait for some technical strength before getting in, as they got beat up a bit this quarter.  Take a look…

Progress Energy Inc (NYSE: PGN) In Regulated Power Space